SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.21%. A draw had a probability of 13% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 6.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-3 (11.25%) and 0-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.17%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (2.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
6.77% ( 0.17) | 13.02% ( 0.14) | 80.21% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 45.8% ( 0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.82% ( 0.05) | 34.18% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.93% ( 0.05) | 56.06% ( -0.05) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.05% ( 0.52) | 50.95% ( -0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.69% ( 0.35) | 85.31% ( -0.35) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.38% ( -0.05) | 6.62% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 75.41% ( -0.13) | 24.59% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 2.08% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.41% Total : 6.77% | 1-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 2.83% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.65% Total : 13.02% | 0-2 @ 12.43% ( -0.1) 0-3 @ 11.25% ( -0.12)0-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.05)1-2 @ 8.38% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 7.64% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 7.59% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 5.15% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 4.15% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 2.8% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.05)0-6 @ 1.88% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.74% ( 0.03)1-6 @ 1.27% ( -0)2-5 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 80.21% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 65 |
| 2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
| 3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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