SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 76.65%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 7.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.43%) and 0-3 (11.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.3%), while for a Santa Clara win it was 1-0 (3.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
7.96% ( -0.27) | 15.39% ( -0.17) | 76.65% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 42.95% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.75% ( -0.16) | 41.25% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.35% ( -0.16) | 63.65% ( 0.16) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.19% ( -0.76) | 52.8% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 13.48% ( -0.49) | 86.52% ( 0.48) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.01% ( 0.06) | 8.99% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.36% ( 0.15) | 30.64% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 0.97% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.63% Total : 7.96% | 1-1 @ 7.3% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.53% Total : 15.39% | 0-2 @ 13.77% ( 0.18) 0-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 11.06% ( 0.18)1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 7.07% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 6.66% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 4.26% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 3.21% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 2.05% 2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.03)0-6 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.44% Total : 76.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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