SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.39%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.64%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
32.02% ( -1.04) | 26.59% ( -0.29) | 41.39% ( 1.33) |
| Both teams to score 51.46% ( 0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.66% ( 0.9) | 53.34% ( -0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.12% ( 0.76) | 74.88% ( -0.76) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69% ( -0.24) | 31% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.69% ( -0.28) | 67.3% ( 0.28) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( 1.12) | 25.42% ( -1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.76% ( 1.51) | 60.24% ( -1.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Gil Vicente |
| 1-0 @ 9.23% ( -0.4) 2-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.27)3-1 @ 2.89% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 3% Total : 32.02% | 1-1 @ 12.64% ( -0.12) 0-0 @ 7.88% ( -0.28)2-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.59% | 0-1 @ 10.79% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 7.39% ( 0.21)1-3 @ 3.95% ( 0.21)0-3 @ 3.37% ( 0.2)2-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.11)1-4 @ 1.35% ( 0.11)0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.4% Total : 41.39% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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