SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 51.11%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.81%) and 1-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Casa Pia |
23.3% ( -0.19) | 25.58% ( 0.09) | 51.11% ( 0.09) |
| Both teams to score 48.36% ( -0.46) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.6% ( -0.5) | 54.4% ( 0.5) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.22% ( -0.42) | 75.77% ( 0.42) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.46% ( -0.46) | 38.54% ( 0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.71% ( -0.44) | 75.29% ( 0.44) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.68% ( -0.17) | 21.31% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.74% ( -0.26) | 54.26% ( 0.26) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 7.83% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 5.77% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.83% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.52% Total : 23.3% | 1-1 @ 12.1% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.8% Total : 25.58% | 0-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 9.81% ( 0.09)1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 5.06% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.82% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.95% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.25% Total : 51.1% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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