SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 81.25%. A draw had a probability of 12.8% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 5.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.13%) and 1-0 (10.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.08%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Rio Ave |
81.25% ( -0.75) | 12.79% ( 0.45) | 5.96% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 41.63% ( 0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.22% ( -0.84) | 36.77% ( 0.84) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.06% ( -0.91) | 58.94% ( 0.91) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.04% ( -0.33) | 6.96% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 74.5% ( -0.88) | 25.49% ( 0.88) |
| Rio Ave Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 44.74% ( 0.39) | 55.25% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 11.96% ( 0.23) | 88.03% ( -0.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Rio Ave |
| 2-0 @ 13.65% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 12.13% ( -0.15)1-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.24)2-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 8.09% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 7.2% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 4.31% ( -0.22)5-1 @ 2.56% ( -0.1)3-2 @ 2.14% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.56% Total : 81.24% | 1-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.21) 0-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.16)2-2 @ 2.4% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.47% Total : 12.79% | 0-1 @ 2.28% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.88% Total : 5.96% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
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