SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 63.39%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 14.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.97%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
63.39% ( 0.94) | 22.22% ( -0.43) | 14.4% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 43.24% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.7% ( 0.69) | 53.3% ( -0.68) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.15% ( 0.58) | 74.85% ( -0.58) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.73% ( 0.56) | 16.27% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.18% ( 1.01) | 45.82% ( -1.01) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.64% ( -0.34) | 48.36% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.51% ( -0.25) | 83.5% ( 0.25) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 14.28% ( -0.12) 2-0 @ 12.97% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 5.7% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 2.59% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 0.94% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.75% Total : 63.38% | 1-1 @ 10.38% ( -0.18) 0-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 3.42% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.55% Total : 22.22% | 0-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 3.77% ( -0.1)0-2 @ 2.08% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.92% Total : 14.4% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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