SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Almeria | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Valencia | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 4 | 1 | 5 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 31.2% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Valencia win was 0-1 (10.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rayo Vallecano would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Valencia |
40.59% ( -0.22) | 28.2% ( 0.09) | 31.2% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 46.41% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.39% ( -0.27) | 59.6% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.06% ( -0.21) | 79.93% ( 0.21) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.21% ( -0.26) | 28.79% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.36% ( -0.32) | 64.63% ( 0.32) |
| Valencia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.17% ( -0.05) | 34.82% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.44% ( -0.05) | 71.56% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Valencia |
| 1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 7.77% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.23% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.65% Total : 40.59% | 1-1 @ 13.16% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.69% Total : 28.19% | 0-1 @ 10.57% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.58% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 31.2% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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