SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 4 | 1 | 5 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Girona | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Valencia | 3 | -1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Osasuna win with a probability of 46.52%. A draw had a probability of 28.4% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Osasuna win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.62%) and 2-1 (8.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.91%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (9.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Osasuna would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Osasuna | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
46.52% ( -0.03) | 28.43% ( -0) | 25.04% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 42.43% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.1% ( 0.04) | 62.9% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.61% ( 0.03) | 82.39% ( -0.03) |
| Osasuna Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.82% ( 0.01) | 27.18% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.41% ( 0.01) | 62.59% ( -0.01) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.27% ( 0.05) | 41.73% ( -0.05) |
