Under normal circumstances, we would be backing Rayo to give Atletico an incredibly difficult match and might have tipped a score draw in this contest; the visitors will be missing a number of important players, though, so we are backing Atletico to pick up a much-needed three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.5%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (7.43%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Atletico Madrid in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Atletico Madrid.
