SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Mallorca | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 36%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 34.49% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.92%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (12.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
34.49% ( 0.5) | 29.51% ( 0.17) | 36% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 43.45% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.46% ( -0.54) | 63.54% ( 0.54) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.15% ( -0.39) | 82.85% ( 0.39) |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.41% ( 0.06) | 34.59% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.68% ( 0.06) | 71.32% ( -0.06) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.42% ( -0.72) | 33.57% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.78% ( -0.8) | 70.22% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 12.32% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 6.54% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 2.53% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.32% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.38% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.25% Total : 34.48% | 1-1 @ 13.45% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 11.61% ( 0.23)2-2 @ 3.9% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.54% Total : 29.5% | 0-1 @ 12.67% 1-2 @ 7.34% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.92% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.52% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.46% Total : 36% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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