SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 22 | 65 |
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 3 | 62 |
| 7 | Villarreal | 38 | 26 | 59 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 30 | 73 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 22 | 71 |
| 4 | Sevilla | 38 | 23 | 70 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 39.09%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 33.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
39.09% ( 0.01) | 27.65% ( -0) | 33.26% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 48.57% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.84% ( -0) | 57.16% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.97% ( -0) | 78.02% ( 0) |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.53% ( 0) | 28.47% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.77% ( 0.01) | 64.23% ( -0.01) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.9% ( -0.01) | 32.1% ( 0.01) |
