SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Villarreal | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 45.05%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 27.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.96%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.95%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
45.05% ( -0.06) | 27.93% ( 0.02) | 27.02% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 45.11% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.77% ( -0.03) | 60.23% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.58% ( -0.02) | 80.41% ( 0.02) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.31% ( -0.05) | 26.69% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.06% ( -0.06) | 61.94% ( 0.06) |
| Villarreal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.53% ( 0.02) | 38.47% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.78% ( 0.02) | 75.22% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
| 1-0 @ 13.56% 2-0 @ 8.96% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 8.56% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.94% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.77% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 45.05% | 1-1 @ 12.95% 0-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.09% ( -0)Other @ 0.62% Total : 27.92% | 0-1 @ 9.81% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 6.19% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.69% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.97% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.49% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0)Other @ 1.57% Total : 27.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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