Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 47.02%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 25.97%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Villarreal win it was 0-1 (9.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
