SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Villarreal | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao | 5 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Girona | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Rayo Vallecano | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 5 | -2 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 62.28%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 14.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.66%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (6.31%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
62.28% ( -0.63) | 23.58% ( 0.27) | 14.14% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 39.18% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.49% ( -0.31) | 58.51% ( 0.31) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.91% ( -0.25) | 79.08% ( 0.24) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.47% ( -0.35) | 18.53% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.23% ( -0.59) | 49.77% ( 0.58) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.1% ( 0.35) | 51.9% ( -0.36) |
