Both clubs are having to battle hard to remain in contention for European qualification, and that should make for an intense match on Sunday. We give the marginal edge to the visitors, who may be able to capitalise on expectations beginning to rise at their opponents.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 40.46%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 (10.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
