SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 38.94%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 33.63% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.23%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 1-0 (10.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sevilla | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
33.63% ( 0.26) | 27.43% ( 0.1) | 38.94% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 49.29% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.71% ( -0.33) | 56.29% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.68% ( -0.27) | 77.32% ( 0.27) |
| Sevilla Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.59% ( 0) | 31.41% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.21% | 67.78% ( -0) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.86% ( -0.36) | 28.13% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.18% ( -0.46) | 63.81% ( 0.46) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sevilla | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.51% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 5.93% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.29% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.93% Total : 33.62% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.85% Total : 27.43% | 0-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 7.11% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.48% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 3% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.85% Total : 38.93% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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