SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Villarreal | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Valencia | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Barcelona | 6 | 17 | 16 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 3 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 8 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 46.45%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
27.75% ( 2.55) | 25.81% ( 0.49) | 46.45% ( -3.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.65% ( 0.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.95% ( -0.23) | 52.05% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.22% ( -0.2) | 73.78% ( 0.2) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.55% ( 1.97) | 33.45% ( -1.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.92% ( 2.1) | 70.08% ( -2.1) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.61% ( -1.43) | 22.39% ( 1.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.1% ( -2.19) | 55.9% ( 2.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.5) 2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.47)2-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.49)3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.29)3-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.26)Other @ 2.4% Total : 27.75% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.15)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 9.19% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 8.39% ( -0.68)1-3 @ 4.58% ( -0.32)0-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.54)2-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.71% ( -0.2)0-4 @ 1.57% ( -0.28)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.18% Total : 46.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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