SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Sevilla | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 16 | Espanyol | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 | Real Valladolid | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Villarreal | 2 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Osasuna | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 58.54%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 18.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.64%) and 1-2 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Espanyol win it was 1-0 (5.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Espanyol | Draw | Real Madrid |
18.76% ( -0.47) | 22.69% ( -0.13) | 58.54% ( 0.59) |
| Both teams to score 50.62% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.85% ( -0.15) | 48.14% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.7% ( -0.14) | 70.3% ( 0.13) |
| Espanyol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.36% ( -0.61) | 39.64% ( 0.61) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.68% ( -0.57) | 76.32% ( 0.57) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.87% ( 0.15) | 16.13% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.45% ( 0.27) | 45.55% ( -0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Espanyol | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 5.92% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 4.99% ( -0.11)2-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 1.54% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.17% Total : 18.76% | 1-1 @ 10.79% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.95% Total : 22.69% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 10.64% ( 0.18)1-2 @ 9.85% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.47% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 5.99% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.95% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.73% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)1-5 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.13% Total : 58.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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