SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Valencia | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Osasuna | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 26.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.19%). The likeliest Celta Vigo win was 2-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Real Madrid |
26.02% ( -2.87) | 23.78% ( -0.46) | 50.19% ( 3.32) |
| Both teams to score 56.73% ( -0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.29% ( 0) | 44.7% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.93% ( 0) | 67.07% ( -0) |
| Celta Vigo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.09% ( -2.12) | 30.91% ( 2.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.8% ( -2.57) | 67.2% ( 2.56) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.12% ( 1.32) | 17.88% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.33% ( 2.22) | 48.67% ( -2.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 2-1 @ 6.56% ( -0.51) 1-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.39)2-0 @ 3.81% ( -0.48)3-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.37)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.21)3-0 @ 1.49% ( -0.29)Other @ 2.9% Total : 26.02% | 1-1 @ 11.17% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.19)0-0 @ 5.53% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.27% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.78% | 1-2 @ 9.62% ( 0.24) 0-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.39)0-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.66)1-3 @ 5.52% ( 0.36)0-3 @ 4.7% ( 0.56)2-3 @ 3.24% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.25)0-4 @ 2.02% ( 0.31)2-4 @ 1.39% ( 0.07)Other @ 3.63% Total : 50.19% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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