SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Athletic Bilbao | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Girona | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 54.57%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 20.23%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.95%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (7.46%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
54.57% ( -0.53) | 25.21% ( -0.25) | 20.23% ( 0.78) |
| Both teams to score 45.64% ( 1.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44% ( 1.73) | 56% ( -1.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.91% ( 1.38) | 77.09% ( -1.38) |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.47% ( 0.47) | 20.53% ( -0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.97% ( 0.75) | 53.03% ( -0.75) |
| Celta Vigo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.43% ( 1.88) | 42.57% ( -1.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.07% ( 1.56) | 78.93% ( -1.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Celta Vigo |
| 1-0 @ 13.83% ( -0.74) 2-0 @ 10.95% ( -0.41)2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 5.78% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.94% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 2.29% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 1.96% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.35% Total : 54.55% | 1-1 @ 11.81% 0-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.6)2-2 @ 4% ( 0.26)Other @ 0.65% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.26)0-2 @ 3.19% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.14% ( 0.13)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.08)Other @ 1.05% Total : 20.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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