SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 58.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Girona had a probability of 17.84%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.6%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.18%), while for a Girona win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
58.42% ( 0.01) | 23.73% ( -0) | 17.84% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 45.97% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.47% ( -0) | 53.52% ( -0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.96% ( -0) | 75.04% |
| Atletico Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.9% ( 0) | 18.09% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.97% ( 0.01) | 49.03% ( -0.01) |
| Girona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.13% ( -0.01) | 43.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.98% ( -0.01) | 80.02% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atletico Madrid | Draw | Girona |
| 1-0 @ 13.57% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 11.6% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.56% 3-0 @ 6.61% ( 0)3-1 @ 5.45% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.83% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.33% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.24% 5-0 @ 0.97% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.96% Other @ 2.31% Total : 58.42% | 1-1 @ 11.18% 0-0 @ 7.94% 2-2 @ 3.94% ( -0)Other @ 0.67% Total : 23.73% | 0-1 @ 6.54% ( -0) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.69% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.27% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 1.66% Total : 17.84% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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