SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 45.79%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (8.62%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Almeria | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
45.79% ( -0.07) | 26.63% ( 0.04) | 27.58% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.1% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.69% ( -0.12) | 55.31% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.47% ( -0.09) | 76.52% ( 0.09) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.9% ( -0.09) | 24.1% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.61% ( -0.12) | 58.39% ( 0.12) |
| Rayo Vallecano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.68% ( -0.03) | 35.31% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.92% ( -0.04) | 72.07% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Almeria | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1-0 @ 12.11% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.62% ( -0)3-1 @ 4.25% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 4.09% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.21% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 45.79% | 1-1 @ 12.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.51% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 8.86% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.56% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.28% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0)Other @ 2.05% Total : 27.58% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
| 9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
| 10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
| 11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
| 12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
| 13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
| 15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
| 16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
| 18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
| R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
| R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
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