SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 74.42%. A draw had a probability of 16.3% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 9.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.15%) and 3-0 (10.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for a Freiburg win it was 0-1 (3.3%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Freiburg |
74.42% ( 0.21) | 16.33% ( -0.12) | 9.25% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 45.4% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.77% ( 0.28) | 41.23% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.37% ( 0.28) | 63.63% ( -0.29) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.48% ( 0.12) | 9.52% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.1% ( 0.28) | 31.9% ( -0.29) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.17% ( -0) | 49.83% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.46% ( -0) | 84.54% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-0 @ 13.11% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 10.28% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 9.14% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.17% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 4.21% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 2.85% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.98% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.39% Total : 74.4% | 1-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.74% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.64% Total : 16.34% | 0-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.09% Total : 9.25% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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