SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Mainz 05 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Hoffenheim | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Hertha Berlin | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 18 | VfL Bochum | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 48.94%. A win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 28.22% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.68%) and 2-0 (7.02%). The likeliest VfL Bochum win was 1-2 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Freiburg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | VfL Bochum |
48.94% ( 0.18) | 22.83% ( -0.05) | 28.22% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 62% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.39% ( 0.12) | 38.6% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.09% ( 0.13) | 60.9% ( -0.13) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.94% ( 0.11) | 16.06% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 54.57% ( 0.2) | 45.42% ( -0.2) |
| VfL Bochum Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.86% ( -0.03) | 26.14% ( 0.03) |
