SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 72.2%. A draw had a probability of 15.8% and a win for Bayer Leverkusen had a probability of 11.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.03%), while for a Bayer Leverkusen win it was 1-2 (3.48%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
72.2% ( 0.06) | 15.83% ( -0.03) | 11.97% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 58.24% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.86% ( 0.06) | 30.14% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.64% ( 0.07) | 51.36% ( -0.08) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.71% ( 0.03) | 7.29% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.61% ( 0.07) | 26.39% ( -0.07) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.82% ( -0) | 37.18% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.03% ( -0) | 73.97% |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
| 2-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 8.11% ( 0)3-1 @ 8.03% ( 0)1-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 5.25% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0)5-0 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 2.75% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.6% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.36% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.04% Total : 72.2% | 1-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 0.24% Total : 15.83% | 1-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.15% ( -0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 11.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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