SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.
| Result | ||
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
47.11% ( -0.56) | 24.2% ( -0.11) | 28.68% ( 0.67) |
| Both teams to score 57.52% ( 0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.34% ( 0.93) | 44.66% ( -0.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.98% ( 0.89) | 67.02% ( -0.89) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.91% ( 0.14) | 19.08% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.31% ( 0.23) | 50.69% ( -0.23) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.09% ( 0.96) | 28.91% ( -0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.21% ( 1.18) | 64.79% ( -1.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Freiburg | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.33)2-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.24)3-1 @ 5.19% 3-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.09)4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.11% | 1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.23)3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.2% | 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.57% Total : 28.68% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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