It is very difficult to separate these two sides on Saturday, with neither of them at their flowing best in recent weeks.
As mentioned above, it is likely to be a tight and even affair between two teams so defensively organised, so we are predicting the game to finish level and with a shortage of goals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 50.57%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 25.39% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.63%) and 2-0 (8.52%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 0-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
