SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 27.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vizela would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Casa Pia |
46.18% ( 0.16) | 26.36% ( -0.01) | 27.46% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 49.81% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.65% ( -0.06) | 54.34% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.27% ( -0.05) | 75.73% ( 0.05) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.5% ( 0.05) | 23.49% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.47% ( 0.07) | 57.52% ( -0.08) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.11% ( -0.16) | 34.89% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.37% ( -0.17) | 71.63% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.6% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.3% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 46.18% | 1-1 @ 12.5% 0-0 @ 8.2% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.89% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 8.63% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.6% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.13% Total : 27.46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 31 | 24 | 4 | 3 | 64 | 19 | 45 | 76 |
| 3 | Braga | 32 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 71 | 29 | 42 | 74 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 48 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | Vizela | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 40 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 32 | 10 | 4 | 18 | 25 | 45 | -20 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 32 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 30 | 60 | -30 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 25 | 55 | -30 | 19 |
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