SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.13% ( 0.06) | 28.31% ( -0.01) | 31.56% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.22% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.11% ( 0.02) | 59.9% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.84% ( 0.02) | 80.16% ( -0.01) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.81% ( 0.05) | 29.2% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.86% ( 0.06) | 65.14% ( -0.05) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.28% ( -0.02) | 34.72% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.55% ( -0.02) | 71.45% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.03% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 1.59% Total : 40.13% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0)Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.31% | 0-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0)0-3 @ 2% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.2% Total : 31.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
| 3 | Braga | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 65 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 57 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 39 |
| 9 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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