SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.09% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.04%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Santa Clara |
39.49% ( -0) | 28.42% ( 0) | 32.09% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 46.07% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.84% ( -0.01) | 60.16% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.64% ( -0) | 80.36% ( 0.01) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.31% ( -0.01) | 29.69% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.25% ( -0.01) | 65.75% ( 0.01) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.52% ( 0) | 34.48% ( 0) |
