SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 64.68%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 14.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.74%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.79%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Braga | Draw | Arouca |
64.68% ( 0.39) | 20.58% ( -0.16) | 14.75% ( -0.23) |
| Both teams to score 48.91% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.91% ( 0.23) | 46.09% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.61% ( 0.22) | 68.39% ( -0.22) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.5% ( 0.19) | 13.5% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.47% ( 0.38) | 40.53% ( -0.38) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.54% ( -0.17) | 43.46% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.33% ( -0.14) | 79.67% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Braga | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 11.76% ( 0.05) 1-0 @ 11.74% ( -0.04)2-1 @ 9.8% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.85% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 6.54% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.31% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 64.67% | 1-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.08) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.84% Total : 20.58% | 0-1 @ 4.89% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.47% Total : 14.75% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 27 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 68 | 16 | 52 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 27 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 58 | 18 | 40 | 64 |
| 3 | Braga | 26 | 19 | 2 | 5 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 59 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 54 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 41 |
| 7 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 27 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 36 |
| 10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 27 | 31 | -4 | 34 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 12 | ChavesChaves | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 32 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 30 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 27 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 27 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 21 | 50 | -29 | 19 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 20 | 46 | -26 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 27 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 15 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
