SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 59.44%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 18.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.54%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Maritimo win it was 1-0 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Braga |
18.39% ( 0.17) | 22.17% ( 0.16) | 59.44% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 51.61% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.52% ( -0.42) | 46.48% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.24% ( -0.39) | 68.76% ( 0.4) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.91% ( -0.05) | 39.09% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.19% ( -0.05) | 75.81% ( 0.05) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.74% ( -0.24) | 15.26% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.06% ( -0.46) | 43.94% ( 0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Maritimo | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 5.6% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 4.95% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 2.63% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.21% Total : 18.39% | 1-1 @ 10.53% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 5.96% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.16% | 0-1 @ 11.21% ( 0.1) 0-2 @ 10.54% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 6.61% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 6.21% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 3.11% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 2.92% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.4% Total : 59.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 52 | 23 | 29 | 53 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 41 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 38 |
| 8 | Vizela | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 35 |
| 9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 25 | 10 | 3 | 12 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 33 |
| 11 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 40 | -12 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 22 | 39 | -17 | 25 |
| 16 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 17 |
| 17 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 41 | -24 | 15 |
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