SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 51%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.03%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (8.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Maritimo |
51% ( 0.01) | 26% ( 0.03) | 23% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 46.87% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.81% ( -0.14) | 56.19% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.75% ( -0.11) | 77.24% ( 0.11) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.9% ( -0.05) | 22.1% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.54% ( -0.08) | 55.46% ( 0.08) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.16% ( -0.12) | 39.83% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.5% ( -0.11) | 76.5% ( 0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 13.28% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.03% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.23% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.05% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.65% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.91% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 50.99% | 1-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.05)2-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.72% Total : 26% | 0-1 @ 8.1% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.73% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.36% Total : 23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
| 2 | Porto | 25 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 58 |
| 3 | Braga | 25 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 56 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
| 7 | Casa Pia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 38 |
| 8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
| 11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 47 | -30 | 16 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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