SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 39.73%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 32.95% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.34%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Vizela |
39.73% ( 0.29) | 27.32% ( -0.07) | 32.95% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 49.48% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.01% ( 0.23) | 55.99% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.92% ( 0.18) | 77.08% ( -0.18) |
| Estoril Praia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.46% ( 0.27) | 27.55% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.94% ( 0.35) | 63.06% ( -0.35) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.29% ( -0.03) | 31.72% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.86% ( -0.03) | 68.14% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estoril Praia | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 11.26% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.58% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.12% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.94% Total : 39.73% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.79% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.32% | 0-1 @ 10.03% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 7.43% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.76% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.21% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 32.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 3 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Vizela | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 39 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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