SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 43.76%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (8.51%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Maritimo |
43.76% ( -0.72) | 27.9% ( 0.02) | 28.34% ( 0.69) |
| Both teams to score 46% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.49% ( 0.24) | 59.51% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.14% ( 0.18) | 79.86% ( -0.18) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.98% ( -0.26) | 27.01% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.63% ( -0.34) | 62.37% ( 0.34) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.02% ( 0.69) | 36.98% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.23% ( 0.68) | 73.77% ( -0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 13.07% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 8.56% ( -0.21)2-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.73% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.85% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.22% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.89% Total : 43.76% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.99% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.67% Total : 27.89% | 0-1 @ 9.94% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.47% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 4.94% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.8% Total : 28.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 31 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 72 | 17 | 55 | 80 |
| 2 | Porto | 30 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 63 | 19 | 44 | 73 |
| 3 | Braga | 31 | 23 | 2 | 6 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 71 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 64 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 31 | 14 | 5 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 47 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 30 | 13 | 3 | 14 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 31 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 40 |
| 11 | Vizela | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 31 | 10 | 4 | 17 | 24 | 40 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 28 | 39 | -11 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 29 | 58 | -29 | 23 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 31 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 50 | -28 | 19 |
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