SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 54.12%. A draw had a probability of 24.7% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 21.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (7.15%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Gil Vicente in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Gil Vicente.
| Result | ||
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Maritimo |
54.12% ( 0.59) | 24.65% ( -0.11) | 21.23% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 48.53% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.12% ( -0.09) | 52.88% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.5% ( -0.08) | 74.49% ( 0.08) |
| Gil Vicente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.51% ( 0.19) | 19.48% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.65% ( 0.32) | 51.35% ( -0.32) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.27% ( -0.54) | 39.73% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.6% ( -0.5) | 76.4% ( 0.5) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gil Vicente | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 12.65% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.16)2-1 @ 9.56% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.41% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0)Other @ 2.87% Total : 54.11% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.74% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.81% Total : 24.65% | 0-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.36% Total : 21.23% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 3 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Vizela | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 39 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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