SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 43.34%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 31.01% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.44%). The likeliest Vizela win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Braga |
31.01% ( -0.01) | 25.65% ( 0.02) | 43.34% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 54.07% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.21% ( -0.09) | 49.79% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.2% ( -0.08) | 71.79% ( 0.08) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.1% ( -0.05) | 29.9% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34% ( -0.06) | 66% ( 0.06) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.12% ( -0.05) | 22.88% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.38% ( -0.07) | 56.62% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 8.26% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.35% ( -0)2-0 @ 4.99% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.96% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.18% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.01% ( -0)Other @ 3.26% Total : 31.01% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 10.08% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 8.98% ( -0)0-2 @ 7.44% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.42% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.66% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 43.34% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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