SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 34.08% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.84%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (9.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Braga |
34.08% ( 0.2) | 26.24% ( 0.44) | 39.68% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 53.14% ( -1.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.55% ( -1.85) | 51.44% ( 1.85) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.74% ( -1.64) | 73.25% ( 1.63) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.29% ( -0.77) | 28.7% ( 0.77) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.46% ( -0.97) | 64.53% ( 0.97) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.53% ( -1.18) | 25.46% ( 1.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.7% ( -1.64) | 60.29% ( 1.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.47) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 2.37% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.64% Total : 34.08% | 1-1 @ 12.47% ( 0.23) 0-0 @ 7.31% ( 0.52)2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.2)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.23% | 0-1 @ 10% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 8.54% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 3.12% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.18)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.47% Total : 39.68% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
| 2 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
| 3 | Braga | 28 | 21 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 24 | 37 | 65 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 27 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 56 | 26 | 30 | 57 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 27 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 44 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 28 | 12 | 3 | 13 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 39 |
| 8 | Casa Pia | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 39 |
| 9 | Vizela | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 31 | 28 | 3 | 38 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 32 | -4 | 35 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 45 | -13 | 33 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
| 14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 28 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 24 | 51 | -27 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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