SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.79%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Famalicao had a probability of 8.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 3-0 (10.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.45%), while for a Famalicao win it was 0-1 (3.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
75.79% ( 0.81) | 15.67% ( -0.29) | 8.53% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 44.62% ( -1.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.46% ( -0.42) | 40.54% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.07% ( -0.43) | 62.92% ( 0.43) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.98% ( 0.08) | 9.02% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.29% ( 0.2) | 30.71% ( -0.21) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.04% ( -1.45) | 50.96% ( 1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.69% ( -1) | 85.31% ( 0.99) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Famalicao |
| 2-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.25)3-0 @ 10.66% ( 0.32)2-1 @ 8.97% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 7.19% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 6.42% ( 0.22)4-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 3.09% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.13)5-1 @ 2.08% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.07)6-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.58% Total : 75.77% | 1-1 @ 7.45% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.18)Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.67% | 0-1 @ 3.1% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 1.88% Total : 8.53% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 33 | 27 | 3 | 3 | 79 | 20 | 59 | 84 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 31 | 38 | 71 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 48 | -18 | 32 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
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