SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 75.98%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 8.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.53%) and 1-0 (10.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.33%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (2.99%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
75.98% ( 0.37) | 15.41% ( -0.22) | 8.6% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 45.9% ( 0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.97% ( 0.57) | 39.03% ( -0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.64% ( 0.59) | 61.35% ( -0.59) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.39% ( 0.22) | 8.6% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 70.29% ( 0.54) | 29.71% ( -0.54) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.22% ( 0.06) | 49.77% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.5% ( 0.04) | 84.5% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Boavista |
| 2-0 @ 12.88% ( -0.07) 3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.17)2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.07)5-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)6-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.05)6-1 @ 0.9% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.04% Total : 75.97% | 1-1 @ 7.33% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.66% Total : 15.41% | 0-1 @ 2.99% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.01% Total : 8.6% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 30 | 25 | 2 | 3 | 71 | 17 | 54 | 77 |
| 2 | Braga | 30 | 23 | 2 | 5 | 66 | 25 | 41 | 71 |
| 3 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 29 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 59 | 27 | 32 | 61 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 48 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 44 |
| 7 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 8 | ChavesChaves | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 30 | 34 | -4 | 40 |
| 9 | Vizela | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 34 | -7 | 39 |
| 11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 30 | 10 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 45 | -19 | 28 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 30 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 52 | -29 | 20 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 30 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 48 | -29 | 16 |
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