SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boavista win with a probability of 45.12%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 28.89% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boavista win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (8.1%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Boavista | Draw | Arouca |
45.12% ( -1.39) | 25.99% ( 0.22) | 28.89% ( 1.17) |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.86% ( -0.27) | 52.14% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.14% ( -0.23) | 73.85% ( 0.23) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.95% ( -0.76) | 23.04% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.13% ( -1.12) | 56.87% ( 1.12) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.38% ( 0.75) | 32.61% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.84% ( 0.83) | 69.15% ( -0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boavista | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 11.03% ( -0.13) 2-1 @ 9.07% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 8.1% ( -0.28)3-1 @ 4.44% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.63% ( -0.1)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.12)4-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.04% Total : 45.12% | 1-1 @ 12.35% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.98% | 0-1 @ 8.42% ( 0.26) 1-2 @ 6.92% ( 0.2)0-2 @ 4.72% ( 0.24)1-3 @ 2.59% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.9% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.59% Total : 28.89% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 28 |
| 2 | Sporting Lisbon | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 28 |
| 3 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Braga | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 30 | 18 | 12 | 23 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 26 | -13 | 14 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 10 |
| 15 | Vizela | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 6 |
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