SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 60%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 16.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.2%) and 1-2 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.98%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (6.38%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
16.53% ( 0.46) | 23.47% ( 0.49) | 60% ( -0.94) |
| Both teams to score 44.3% ( -0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.56% ( -1.09) | 54.44% ( 1.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.19% ( -0.91) | 75.8% ( 0.92) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.92% ( -0.04) | 46.07% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 18.22% ( -0.04) | 81.78% ( 0.04) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.14% ( -0.73) | 17.85% ( 0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.38% ( -1.27) | 48.62% ( 1.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Casa Pia | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 6.38% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 1.1% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.38% Total : 16.53% | 1-1 @ 10.98% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.59% Total : 23.46% | 0-1 @ 14.17% ( 0.27) 0-2 @ 12.2% ( -0.07)1-2 @ 9.46% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 7.01% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 5.43% ( -0.17)0-4 @ 3.02% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 2.34% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.07)0-5 @ 1.04% ( -0.08)2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.3% Total : 59.99% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 33 | 26 | 4 | 3 | 70 | 22 | 48 | 82 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 53 |
| 6 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 13 | 4 | 16 | 37 | 45 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 31 | 41 | -10 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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