SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 56.06%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 20.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.22%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Maritimo |
56.06% ( 0.13) | 23.61% ( -0.06) | 20.33% ( -0.07) |
| Both teams to score 50.36% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.2% ( 0.17) | 49.8% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.2% ( 0.16) | 71.8% ( -0.16) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.41% ( 0.11) | 17.59% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.84% ( 0.19) | 48.16% ( -0.19) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.11% ( 0.03) | 38.89% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.38% ( 0.03) | 75.62% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 11.88% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 10.33% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.66% Total : 56.05% | 1-1 @ 11.22% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.84% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.93% Total : 23.6% | 0-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 5.3% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.05% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.67% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0)0-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.44% Total : 20.33% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 34 | 25 | 3 | 6 | 75 | 30 | 45 | 78 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 62 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
