SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 44.98%. A win for Maritimo had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Maritimo win was 0-1 (8.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Arouca in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
44.98% ( -0.38) | 26.32% ( 0.17) | 28.7% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 50.73% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.45% ( -0.56) | 53.55% ( 0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.94% ( -0.48) | 75.06% ( 0.47) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.28% ( -0.42) | 23.72% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.15% ( -0.61) | 57.85% ( 0.61) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.5% ( -0.14) | 33.5% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.86% ( -0.15) | 70.13% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Maritimo |
| 1-0 @ 11.43% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 3.95% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.36% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.73% Total : 44.98% | 1-1 @ 12.5% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.31% | 0-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.16) 1-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.75% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 2.49% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.73% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.4% Total : 28.7% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 32 | 27 | 2 | 3 | 77 | 18 | 59 | 83 |
| 2 | Porto | 32 | 25 | 4 | 3 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 79 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 67 | 29 | 38 | 70 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 51 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 32 | 15 | 5 | 12 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 50 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 32 | 13 | 4 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 43 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 53 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vizela | 33 | 11 | 7 | 15 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 40 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 32 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 37 | -8 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | 33 | 38 | -5 | 39 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 10 | 4 | 19 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 34 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 34 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 32 | 9 | 4 | 19 | 28 | 46 | -18 | 31 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 33 | 7 | 5 | 21 | 31 | 60 | -29 | 26 |
| 17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 33 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 22 |
| 18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 20 |
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