SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 41.17%. A win for Boavista had a probability of 31.99% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.44%). The likeliest Boavista win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Boavista |
41.17% ( -0.04) | 26.84% ( 0.01) | 31.99% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 50.66% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.64% ( -0.04) | 54.36% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.26% ( -0.03) | 75.74% ( 0.03) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.99% ( -0.04) | 26% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 38.97% ( -0.05) | 61.03% ( 0.05) |
| Boavista Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.46% ( -0) | 31.54% ( 0) |
