SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maritimo win with a probability of 43.68%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maritimo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 (9.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maritimo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Maritimo | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
43.68% ( -0.26) | 27.16% ( 0.13) | 29.16% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 48.51% ( -0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.48% ( -0.41) | 56.52% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.49% ( -0.33) | 77.51% ( 0.33) |
| Maritimo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.32% ( -0.31) | 25.68% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.4% ( -0.43) | 60.59% ( 0.43) |
| Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.28% ( -0.12) | 34.72% ( 0.12) |
