SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 50.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 24.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.6%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (8.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Famalicao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Famalicao.
| Result | ||
| Famalicao | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
50.05% ( -0.59) | 25.86% ( 0.04) | 24.09% ( 0.55) |
| Both teams to score 48.41% ( 0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.24% ( 0.27) | 54.75% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.93% ( 0.23) | 76.07% ( -0.23) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.08% ( -0.14) | 21.91% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.82% ( -0.21) | 55.18% ( 0.21) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.99% ( 0.66) | 38% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.22% ( 0.63) | 74.77% ( -0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Famalicao | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 12.64% ( -0.19) 2-0 @ 9.6% ( -0.19)2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 4.86% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.84% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.78% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.08% Total : 50.05% | 1-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.07)Other @ 0.8% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 8.06% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 3.9% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.61% Total : 24.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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