SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 39.52%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.3% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.48%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Santa Clara | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
32.3% ( -0.61) | 28.18% ( -0.34) | 39.52% ( 0.96) |
| Both teams to score 46.81% ( 0.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.74% ( 1.1) | 59.26% ( -1.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.33% ( 0.84) | 79.67% ( -0.84) |
| Santa Clara Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.15% ( 0.15) | 33.85% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.49% ( 0.16) | 70.51% ( -0.16) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.76% ( 1.11) | 29.23% ( -1.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.81% ( 1.34) | 65.19% ( -1.34) |
| Score Analysis |
| Santa Clara | Draw | Vitoria de Guimaraes |
| 1-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.41) 2-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.2)3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.1% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.38% Total : 32.3% | 1-1 @ 13.18% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 9.9% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.12)Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.17% | 0-1 @ 12.16% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 8.11% ( 0.19)0-2 @ 7.48% ( 0.15)1-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.18)0-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.02% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 0.94% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.6% Total : 39.51% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 29 | 24 | 2 | 3 | 69 | 17 | 52 | 74 |
| 2 | Porto | 29 | 22 | 4 | 3 | 62 | 19 | 43 | 70 |
| 3 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 29 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 48 |
| 6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
| 7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Vizela | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 39 |
| 9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
| 10 | ChavesChaves | 29 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 |
| 13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 29 | 10 | 3 | 16 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 33 |
| 14 | Gil Vicente | 29 | 8 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 34 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 29 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 25 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 17 |
| 18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 29 | 3 | 7 | 19 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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