SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 77.79%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 8.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.54%) and 1-0 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.72%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
77.79% ( 0.91) | 14.2% ( -0.38) | 8.02% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 47.86% ( -1.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.91% ( -0.01) | 35.09% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.91% ( -0.02) | 57.09% ( 0.03) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.7% ( 0.19) | 7.31% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.58% ( 0.48) | 26.42% ( -0.47) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.64% ( -1.22) | 48.37% ( 1.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 16.5% ( -0.9) | 83.5% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Arouca |
| 2-0 @ 12.09% ( 0.24) 3-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.3)1-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.1)2-1 @ 8.79% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 7.66% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 3.61% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.78% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 2.62% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.82% ( -0.06)6-0 @ 1.58% ( 0.09)6-1 @ 1.14% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.02% Total : 77.77% | 1-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 3.53% ( 0)2-2 @ 3.19% ( -0.16)Other @ 0.76% Total : 14.2% | 0-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.08% Total : 8.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Benfica | 34 | 28 | 3 | 3 | 82 | 20 | 62 | 87 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 27 | 4 | 3 | 73 | 22 | 51 | 85 |
| 3 | Braga | 33 | 24 | 3 | 6 | 72 | 30 | 42 | 75 |
| 4 | Sporting Lisbon | 34 | 23 | 5 | 6 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 74 |
| 5 | AroucaArouca | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 53 |
| 7 | ChavesChaves | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 46 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 44 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 54 | -11 | 44 |
| 10 | Casa Pia | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 41 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 40 |
| 12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 40 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 32 | 41 | -9 | 37 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | PortimonensePortimonense | 34 | 10 | 4 | 20 | 25 | 48 | -23 | 34 |
| 16 | Maritimo | 34 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 32 | 63 | -31 | 26 |
| 17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 23 |
| R | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 26 | 58 | -32 | 22 |
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