Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 57.36%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 19.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.92%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (6.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
